October 2016 Sea-Mock

By Jared Stanger

I’ve traditionally done an October Seahawks mock draft for the last few years, but usually I wait until the half-way point of the NFL season. I’m writing one a couple weeks early this year cause I was just getting that itch.

Since the last mock I did, I believe Seattle traded a 7th round pick to the Raiders for LB/S Dewey McDonald, and then they were docked a 5th round pick for the training camp fight. This is after trading away their 4th rounder to New England as part of the 2016 draft. But they are still due a 7th round conditional pick for sending Kevin Norwood to Carolina, and currently project to receive two compensation picks for the loss of Bruce Irvin and JR Sweezy.

At one point, based purely on the contracts they signed, Seattle was looking at 4th round comps for both Bruce/Sweez, but with JR dealing with injury for Tampa, the league can, and likely will, reduce that down to a 5th or 6th. I’ll call it a 5th for now. Overthecap also points out that Seattle could still regain a 6th round comp if Webb or Sowell is cut before week 10 of the season.

So, currently, the Seattle 2017 draft looks like: 1, 2, 3, 4c, 5c, 6, 7t. And Seattle is currently slated to draft approximately 26th overall (this will update after Monday Night Football wraps up this week’s games).

1st Round

I know everyone wants Seattle to address that OL, and specifically OT, but I don’t think it’s going to happen early in this draft. The three top OT on pretty much every draft board are all underclassmen, and one of them (Mike McGlinchey) has already said he’s staying in school for his Senior year. That leaves potential first rounders at Cam Robinson (likely gone before Seattle picks), and Roderick Johnson (who I really think is not good, at all).

My favorite 2017 draft-eligible OT is Wisconsin’s Ryan Ramczyk (also a Junior). Follow the tweet hyper-link for a thread of gifs on Ramczyk vs Michigan State:

Ramczyk is listed 6’6″/314 by UW…which is a GREAT size for a Tackle. Reports are he’s pretty well SPARQ’d up, too. If he declares this year, his combine testing, and the shallow depth of OT in the class, might put him out of Seattle’s reach. Pretty likely, actually.

If Ramczyk stays in school, and we get some of the 2018 underclassmen to declare early, 2018 will end up a great time to try and get a quality LT even late in the 1st round.

So, if the 1st round isn’t OT; what might it be? As I theorized recently (niche drafting), Seattle should look to play to the strengths of this draft class. This year, the three strongest positions are RB, DE, and CB. I don’t think a 1st round RB is good value. I don’t think Seattle values CB that early. So…get yourself an edge guy, and get yourself ahead of the curve for 2018 unrestricted free agent Cassius Marsh.

Current Draftscout projections have Dawaune Smoot (#29) and Charles Harris (#30) available late in the 1st. These are two guys that I’ve been targeting since, at least, May. Smoot is listed 6’3″/255 and Harris is at 6’3″/260. I haven’t watched much of Harris’ 2016 tape as, for most of the year, he’s been projected to come off the board before Seattle picks.

I have watched a couple games from Smoot and, after starting off the year really slowly, Dawaune has started coming alive in the last 2-3 weeks. His overall production still isn’t spectacular (30 tackles, 8.0 TFL, 1.0 sack, 5 QB hurries, 2 forced fumbles), but over the last 3 games Smoot has averaged 6 tackles and 2 TFL per game.

Here are some gifs from his game vs Nebraska three weeks ago (follow link):

Charles Harris has also had a slow-ish start: 24 tackles, 4.5 TFL, 3.5 sacks, 1 PBU, 4 QB hurries, 1 FF. Interesting thing about Harris is that he’s sitting at 260 lbs, has been used some as an inside rusher; so if he could get to 270-275, you might have someone closer to Mike Bennett.

If Seattle can pull either of these guys in the 1st round, I think you HAVE to do it. There is currently a dropoff of almost a full round to the next tier of edge guys.

For purposes of this mock, and for higher plausability, I’m giving Seattle:

1st- DE Dawaune Smoot, Illinois

2nd Round

My 2nd round thought might surprise people. After drafting three RB in 2016 many, or even most, might think this is too early for another RB, but…..

Christine Michael is an impending UFA…Rawls is dealing with his second time breaking a leg bone…Prosise has seen two regular season touches so far in his inaugural PHMHDPOTY campaign…Collins has looked out of shape…and Brooks was cut and phantom-rostered for weeks before re-appearing on the PS. Spiller is also an UFA, and after Sunday’s drop, may not even last the year (depending on Prosise).

And the draft class is just TOO flush with potential bell-cow backs. Draftscout has Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook, Christian McCaffrey gone in the 1st…Royce Freeman, Samaje Perine, Nick Chubb in the 2nd. This does not even account for a potential rise from the likes of D’onta Foreman, Jamaal Williams, Jarvion Franklin, Corey Clement, Brandon Radcliff, Alvin Kamara, etc.

Right now, after coming back from the major knee injury, and not really having a great production year, I’m seeing a slide in the ranking of Nick Chubb, and I would take advantage of such a thing. Draftscout has Nick at #64 today.

2nd- RB Nick Chubb, Georgia

3rd Round

I’m not going to spend too much exposition on this one. I think this is an AWESOME draft for CB’s. For Seahawks’ purposes and “types”, this draft might be deepest for their own board at CB. That might be an argument to push this pick back a round. But with Seattle’s current draftpick allotment…no 4th round pick until the comp pick group (assuming they actually get a 4th for Bruce)…I just don’t want to risk missing on my 1A at Corner.

I think the CB that best fits the profile of a Seattle CB this draft is Brandon Facyson. I mean, this guy is SUCH a Seahawk. 6’2″/195lbs, 19 tackles, 1.5 TFL, 7 PBU, 1 FF in 2016. Draftscout has him at #109 (mid-4th round), but I’d run to the podium for him in the 3rd.

The other player I really like at this spot is Temple OLB/DE Haason Reddick. I’ve been on Reddick since the beginning of the year, and his stock will only continue to skyrocket as his production continues to get people to watch him. Reddick currently leads FBS in TFL with 14.0 in 7 games played. Draftscout has him at #107 overall, but I think his production and combine testing could elevate him into the 2nd round.

3rd- CB Brandon Facyson, Virginia Tech

4th Round Comp

Seattle really needs to add like 3 more picks to this draft. I’m not mocking enough trades to get them there, but I will mock one here. 2017 will be the first year comp picks may be traded, and I’ll project Seattle swapping 4c for a 5th and a 7th.

Ever since Seattle drafted Nick Vannett last year, I’ve had this growing suspicion Luke Willson might leave in free agency. Luke getting hurt this week probably furthers that thought. And this is a good class of TE. It adds up.

Some of the TE that could come off in this range include: Blake Jarwin, Pharoah Brown, Cam Serigne, Josiah Price. But the guy I’m targeting is Cole Hikutini.

There are a lot of TE in this class that are more the Z tight end…the glorified wide receiver. After drafting a true Y, in-line TE last year in Vannett, Seattle could be in the market for a Z now. Those guys include pretty SPARQ’d up names like Darrell Daniels, Gerald Everett, Jonnu Smith. Everett would the one from that group I would target.

Hikutini is a pretty standard 6’5″/248lb TE that has shown me flashes as both a receiver and a blocker. I don’t have any gifs of him yet, but please enjoy some of his JUCO highlights:

http://www.hudl.com/video/3/2993248/5721be254df6124b70060796

5A- TE Cole Hikutini, Louisville

5th Round Comp

I kind of have this pick earmarked as a special teams player. I don’t know if that means replacing UFA (Mike Morgan or Kelcie McCray), or one of the many RFA (Neiko Thorpe, Brock Coyle, Dewey McDonald, Deshawn Shead, Jordan Tripp). And I really won’t have a great sense of which players will test high enough to be what I think qualifies for what Seattle likes on ST.

I’m going with Colorado DE/OLB Jimmie Gilbert Jr. Listed at 6’5″/230, he’s built similarly to Mike Morgan who came out of USC at 6’3″/226 and now weighs 235 lbs. Most of Gilbert’s tape is at pass-rushing linebacker, but he shows some adeptness to drop in coverage. I think Gilbert gives the flexibility of DE, OLB, and special teams that would check off a lot of boxes for me at this point.

Draftscout has Gilbert ranked as an UDFA at #533 overall. So I’m going aggressive taking him in the 5th. Unless I’m right about him, in which case this is appropriate value.

5c- OLB Jimmie Gilbert Jr, Colorado

6th Round

It’s somewhat tempting to take UW’s Joe Mathis here but I don’t know how much ST he can play. There are a handful of WR that are undervalued in this range, too. But I’m sticking to my theme. It’s a double-dip at CB, and this is another long, 6’2″/203lb DB who I am projecting as a corner/safety hybrid with special teams duties.

Rasul Douglas is almost the exact same size Kelcie McCray was when he came out of Arkansas State in 2012. On the year, Douglas has posted 2 INT, 4 PBU, 2 TFL, 1 sack, and 28 total tackles. That’s a pretty big number of tackles for a corner and it leads me to believe he’d be really good playing in the box safety, if needed.

Douglas is ranked #767 overall.

6th- DB Rasul Douglas, West Virginia

7th Round A

With Tony McDaniel only signed on a 1-year deal, Rubin and Reed projecting as starters next year; Seattle can look for some depth at DT in the late rounds. I like Treyvon Hester as a 3rd down 3tech. At 6’3″/300lbs, Treyvon has posted 23 tackles, 7.0 TFL, 4.0 sacks, and 3 hurries in six games this year.

This is one of the better big-man pass rushers I’ve seen this year that doesn’t come with the SEC tax.

Hester is Draftscout’s #256 overall. Which is technically the Mr. Irrelevant slot.

7a- DT Treyvon Hester, Toledo

7th Round B

I stumbled upon tape of this RT from William and Mary one night. He’s listed 6’8″/305 and looks like an athletic project, but that’s often what Seattle likes in the 7th. At this point, his run-blocking is ahead of his pass-pro. He likely ends up having to go through the practice squad.

Ugokwe has to test exceptionally well for this to be a realistic pick. He certainly isn’t ready on tape. Ugokwe is Draftscout’s #717 overall.

7b- OT Jerry Ugokwe, William and Mary

 

Recap

1st- DE Dawaune Smoot, Illinois

2nd- RB Nick Chubb, Georgia

3rd- CB Brandon Facyson, Virginia Tech

5A- TE Cole Hikutini, Louisville

5c- OLB Jimmie Gilbert Jr, Colorado

6th- DB Rasul Douglas, West Virginia

7a- DT Treyvon Hester, Toledo

7b- OT Jerry Ugokwe, William and Mary

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