Seamock: October 2017

by Jared Stanger

I’ve done a Seahawks 7-round mock draft in October going back quite a few years. It’s one of my favorites. Toward the end of October I have a pretty good idea of the players I’m targeting, but their common projection puts them undervalued pretty much across the board.

October is when you can theoretically draft Odell Beckham and Aaron Donald in consecutive rounds with just your native draft picks. It’s the pre-helium mock.

Let’s start with the draft picks by round…there should currently be 8 picks:

1st
3rd
4th
5th (Raiders)
5th (Pats)
7th (Jets)
7th (Pats)
7th (Vikes)

There is some uncertainty of which picks will remain in the 5th and 7th rounds after multiple trades, including trading a 7th to New England for Justin Coleman, and then getting the same pick back from New England in the trade for Cassius Marsh. I’ve set this mock with Seattle trading away their native picks in both 5th and 7th, and keeping the picks from the other teams.

Speaking of trades; there was a time a few months ago I was getting the impression Seattle might trade up in the 1st round for the first time in the PCJS regime. After they acquired Sheldon Richardson for their 2nd round pick, I don’t get that impression anymore. Other factors that may be contributing to that: the underwhelming play of the college QB and DE class and injuries to the OT class.

Another thing that I think is pretty important to know about this draft: I don’t think it’s very deep. Those five picks in the 5th-7th rounds are not going to be particular useful, in my opinion. I’d really prefer to concentrate a whole bunch of picks in the 2nd-3rd.

After Sunday’s win against New York, I have Seattle in the playoffs and drafting approximately #23 overall. Although they don’t need another 1st rounder (Buffalo has their own 1st plus the Chiefs’ 1st); Buffalo currently holds two 2nd round picks that hit the draftpick trade chart pretty close to the value of #24 overall.

Trade #23 to Buffalo for #47 and #56

I’ve seen mocks where Texas LT Connor Williams is available at #23, but a) he’s injured and may not declare, b) if he does declare I think he gets drafted earlier than 23. More legitimate OT options at #23 could include Orlando Brown (likely too big and not athletic enough for Pete as a LT), or Martinas Rankin (a totally solid player, but more of a value at #33-#40). Keep in mind, this mock is what I think SHOULD happen, not what I think Seattle is looking to do.

I’m looking to take advantage of the lack of buzz on one of my favorite players to acquire more picks, and still address a position of need. Rees has been not great. Fant has been a more athletic not great. Although my suspicion is that he won’t test athletic enough for Seattle’s specs at LT (might project more as a Seattle LG…which wouldn’t be the worst thing with Joeckel a FA); I think the best value at LT this draft will be Oregon LT Tyrell Crosby.

If Tyrell can run a sub-5.20s forty, I think he can stay at LT for Seattle. If he doesn’t, they’d move him off to another spot. But his tape is LT all-day, for me.

#47- Oregon LT Tyrell Crosby

Now, the second pick in the 2nd becomes a really interesting spot. You could look to address the TE that you (hopefully) need in place of letting Jimmy walk in free agency. You could take a backup QB which is something Seattle has been scouting very intensely. You could draft a DE replacement for the question mark that has become Cliff Avril’s health. I have it in my head to go another direction.

In light of what was supposed to be the team’s deep strength turning into a MASH unit of inefficacy and injury; I’m going bold at RB.

In what was supposed to be the great QB class of the last 5 years, all of the QB’s have underwhelmed, while the nation’s college RB’s have stolen the show. I like the pocket of value at #56 for RB. I could see multiple from the grouping of Nick Chubb, Royce Freeman, Damien Harris, Ronald Jones, and Josh Adams finding their way to this spot.

Although I’ve recently started seeing my favored RB as one of the guys off earlier than this (often inside the 1st); the practical truth is that RB’s generally fall farther than expected. With guys like Saquon Barkley, Derius Guice, and maybe Bryce Love coming off earlier; there is historical precedent that only 3-4 RB will be gone by this point. I think my guy lasts.

What better than replacing a free agent RB from Alabama with a rookie RB from Alabama? Damien Harris is 5’11″/221lbs (right in the pocket of what Seattle generally targets), he’s only 27th in the country in rushing yards (thanks to a timeshare with Bo Scarbrough), but he’s 7th in rushing YPC and 11th in rushing TD’s, and I happen to know he’s sneakier athletic than people realize.

Here is the tape:

#56- Alabama RB Damien Harris

Those first two picks are guys I REALLY need to have.

Normally in a draft you’d try to strike a balance between offense and defense. After going with defensive players in 4 of their first 5 picks in rounds 2-3 last year; I actually think they could plausibly afford to go offense three straight to open 2018.

In the month of October the Seahawks have been scouting WR’s pretty heavily. Names like Gallup, Chark, Miller, Johnson, Grayson, Ishmael. Most of them run 6’1″ to 6’2″ tall. If any run in the 4.3 to low 4.4s range in their 40 time, they could be a hedge for Paul Richardson in free agency. Personally, I try to find someone that can upgrade Tanner McEvoy as a plus-size redzone target (also hedging Jimmy).

My short list is in the range of a Marcell Ateman (6’4″/220lbs, 19.85ypc, 4 TD), James Gardner (6’4″/216lbs, 21.28ypc, 6 TD), Jaleel Scott (6’6″/216lbs, 14.51ypc, 7 TD). Though this price might be too rich for someone coming from such a small school; I favor Scott.

#88- New Mexico State WR Jaleel Scott

Another general thought I have this year is that Seattle drafts a slot corner. Justin Coleman has been a very good addition, but he is a RFA and Jeremy Lane is likely not long for the roster. Seattle has boundary corner depth, but need depth at the slot.

I think Tulane’s Parry Nickerson and Western Michigan’s Darius Phillips are very interesting candidates.

Nickerson is listed 6’0″/180lbs and looks more the part. In games vs two of the big triple-option run teams (Army/Navy) in which both teams combined to throw the ball 17 times; Parry managed an INT in each game. He has 3 INT, 4 PBU, and a pretty stout 36 tackles.

Phillips is borderline too small for Seattle CB standards. He is listed 5’10″/190lbs. I’m not sure Seattle has ever had a CB under 5’11” (Coleman is 5’10 5/8″). But Phillips also brings exceptional return skills. If Seattle holds firm to their size specs, I’d wonder if Phillips could play free safety for them. This could be our version of Tyrann Mathieu.

#120 – Western Michigan DB Darius Phillips

These next few picks are super speculative. Certainly, my tracking tells me this next one is unlikely. But this is my mock.

I think Seattle is scouting QB really hard, and they’re starting at the top. They are either going to overspend to have a really good backup for Russ, or they are planning ahead not to re-up Russ at market prices in 2 years. It will be interesting to see if they make the move this year or next (which is probably hugely dependent on which underclass QB declare this year). I have a feeling they will wait until 2019.

I don’t mind doing it this year for the right guy. For me, the right guy has different qualities than what most evaluators look for. I won’t be fully committed to a QB until I see some of the college postseason draft activities. I know it when I see it.

For now, I’m only like 60% sure on this QB pick.

#147 – Ohio State QB J.T. Barrett

I like this draft for the SAM backers. I don’t have a solid sense of how they will shake out round-wise, but it’s a base-D only position that doesn’t see a ton of snaps with the league going 3 WR so much. A 5th rounder is a good spot to target one. McDonald, Wilhoite, and Garvin are all UFA. Maybe resign one, draft one or two.

I’m going with a guy that I spotted early on from a small school, playing mostly DE. But he’s listed at 6’1″/240lbs, which may force him into a SAM/OTTO role in the pros. His production has been very good this year (9.5 sacks and 13.5 TFL, plus 4 forced fumbles).

Here he is bending the edge:

#158 – Ball State OLB Anthony Winbush

With all of Luke Joeckel, Oday Aboushi, and Matt Tobin becoming free agents after this year, Seattle probably needs some OL depth. I don’t think it’s plausible, personally, but I did see on some draft big board that OG’s Will Hernandez and Wyatt Teller were available this late (it won’t happen). But if either did, they would be incredible value here.

I think Hernandez has more buzz, but I think I like Teller better.

#199 – Virginia Tech LG Wyatt Teller

I’ve also seen UCLA LB Kenny Young available as an UDFA. Though his numbers are down a bit from his 2016 campaign when he averaged 7.50 tackles per game and had 5.0 sacks; I think the value would be too high to pass up (especially with multiple LB as free agents).

#209 – UCLA LB Kenny Young

I do not object to drafting a kicker like many people. Had Seattle drafted Harrison Butker this year, they would have him 4 years cheap, rather than 1 year of Blair Walsh. Butker has gone 13×14 since joining KC, with a long of 53 yards.

Auburn’s Daniel Carlson would be my #1 choice, but he probably gets picked a couple rounds earlier than this. I’m looking for a bit more value.

Trevor Moore has gone 11×12 overall on FG, 27×27 on extra points, he’s 6×7 over 40 yards with a long of 48, and he’s 8th in the country in kickoff distance.

#222 – North Texas K Trevor Moore

The total haul:

#47 – LT Tyrell Crosby
#56 – RB Damien Harris
#88 – WR Jaleel Scott
#120 – DB Darius Phillip
#147 – QB JT Barrett
#158 – OLB/DE Anthony Winbush
#199 – OG Wyatt Teller
#209 – LB Kenny Young
#222 – K Trevor Moore

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